WTI-Brent原油价差成因及走势研判

Study on Reasons and Trend of WTI-Brent Spread

在国际原油定价机制中,WTI、Brent价格起着举足轻重的作用,WTI-Brent原油价差的走势研判具有重要意义。WTIBrent原油价差演变历史可以分为4个阶段：稳定期、波动期、大幅倒挂期、稳定倒挂期。2010年之后,WTI-Brent原油价差大幅扩大,波动规律与之前有着很大不同。分析其原因,北美原油市场的变化对价差倒挂起到了决定性作用,美国原油产量的快速增长从根源上导致原油价差进入大幅倒挂期,库欣地区原油库存的变动影响了原油价差的走势,突发事件——哈维飓风造成近期原油价差扩大。同时,中东北非政局动荡,拉高了Brent价格,对原油价差的大幅扩大也起到一定的助推作用。随着库欣地区输出管线的建设以及美国原油出口禁令的解除,使得跨大西洋两地原油市场双向套利已基本不存在障碍,2015年12月之后原油价差已进入稳定倒挂期且会持续较长时间,未来两三年原油价差将在-2^-4美元/bbl之间波动。当然,一些事件的发生可能会使原油价差偏离波动区间。

WTI and Brent oil prices play important roles in the pricing mechanism for international crude oils,and the trend analysis of WTI-Brent spread is of great significance.The evolution history of WTI-Brent spread can be divided into four stages,i.e.stability period,fluctuation period,huge inversion period and stable inversion period.Since 2010,the WTI-Brent spread has widened considerably,and the fluctuation rule was quite different from that before.The reasons are analyzed in this paper.The changes in crude oil market in North America played a decisive role in the inversion of spread,the rapid growth of US crude output fundamentally led to the huge inversion of spread,the changes in crude oil inventory at Cushing influenced the trend of spread,and the unexpected Hurricane Harvey resulted in the recent expansion of spread.At the same time,the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has boosted the Brent oil price and promot-ed,to some extent,the dramatic expansion of the spread.With the construction of export pipelines at Cushing and the lifting of the US ban on crude oil exports,there is basically no obstacle to the two-way arbitrage of crude oil markets across the Atlantic.The WTI-Brent spread has entered a stable inversion period since De-cember 2015 and will last for a long period of time.It will fluctuate between-2 to-4 US dollars per bar-rel in the next two to three years.Of course,some events may deviate the spread from its fluctuation range.