基于情景模拟的城镇扩展研究——以武汉市蔡甸区为例

Study on urban expansion based on scenario simulation——case studies on Caidian district in Wuhan city

近年来,在经济全球化的背景下,随着中国城镇化水平不断提高,学者对城镇扩展的研究成为热点。把握城镇土地利用时空变化过程及其演变机制,制定科学合理的管控政策和优化都市空间结构具有重要的现实意义。本文使用武汉市蔡甸区2005年与2011年的土地利用数据,采用情景模拟的研究方法,构建基于约束性CA的城镇扩展模型,分析了蔡甸区2005-2011年城镇用地扩展趋势,模拟了蔡甸区2020年城镇用地不同情景下的扩展。研究结果表明:(1)蔡甸区城镇用地扩展具有快速扩展的特点,但其集约利用水平较低,具有明显的外延粗放增长特征;(2)约束性CA模型应用于蔡甸区城镇扩展模拟结果与实际结果十分相近,具有很高的精度,显示此次模拟具有较高的准确性;(3)对比分析不同情景下的扩展模式对加强土地管控具有借鉴意义。

In recent years, China＇s urbanization level enhances unceasingly under the background of economic globalization.Corresponding to the situation, the study of urban expansion become a hot spot. In practical application, it＇s of significance to grasp the land use change process and evolution mechanism, to make scientific and rational control policy as well as to optimize the urban spatial structure. This paper choose Caidian district in Wuhan city as an experimental area for scenario simulation.Constrianed CA model is applied to analyse the urban land expansion trend. The result of the experiment demonstrates the conclusion as followings.（1）In Caidian district, the characteristics of the urban growth represent high-speed expansion while the level of intensive utilization is quite low;（2）The result of urban expansion simulation in Caidian district indicates CA model＇s high precision in the field of urban expansion simulation;（3）The analysis of the expansion patterns which are under different scenarios can be used as reference for strengthening land management and control.