贸易冲击与中国遭遇的反倾销、反补贴调查影响因素研究

A Study on Trade Shocks and Factors of Anti-dumping and Countervailing Investigations on China

本文作者基于贸易冲击的视角,首先使用1995~2015年HS4分位编码下中国遭遇的来自27个国家和地区的反倾销、反补贴调查的涉案产品数据,在控制宏观经济因素和触发策略因素等变量后,利用面板负二项计数模型进行研究,发现贸易冲击对中国遭遇的反倾销、反补贴调查数量具有正向影响。随后选取五个对中国频繁使用反倾销、反补贴调查手段的代表性国家和地区,即美国、墨西哥、欧盟、加拿大、印度,利用面板logit模型,证实贸易冲击提高了中国遭遇"双反"调查的概率。

Based on the perspective of trade shocks, firstly we use HS4 digits product data from 1995 to 2015 of the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations which China encountered from 27 countries and regions. After controlling macroeconomic factors and strategy triggering factors, we find that trade shocks of China have a significantly positive effect on the number of the antidumping and countervailing investigations that China＇s products encountered by using panel NB model. Secondly, we use panel logit model and choose five typical countries and regions, including United States, Mexico, European Union, Canada and India, then prove that trade shocks raise the probability of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against China.