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TPP进程中亚太国家直接投资的变动趋势——基于STAR模型的分析

Change of Asia-Pacific Countries' FDI during TPP's Development:An Analysis Based on STAR Model
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摘要 TPP所涉及的国家均为亚太国家,各国的FDI存在着空间相关。本文作者运用时空自回归模型(STAR)模拟和预测美国持续推进TPP进程中亚太各国FDI的变动趋势及其相互之间的连动关系,分析其时间效应、空间扩散过程,进而探讨其内在机理。结果显示:亚太各国FDI的时空演变地图解释了TPP进程中直接投资变动的扩散过程与持续时间,四大群落FDI随时间呈阶段性特征和连续性趋势。具体而言,美国对外直接投资持续,日本吸收的FDI呈上升趋势,发展中国家对美国市场的依赖增强;其他TPP成员国直接投资流入呈增长趋势;流入中国的FDI逐渐减少,以中国为核心枢纽的东亚生产网络遭到破坏;其他非TPP成员国短期内FDI受影响相对较小。在TPP扩展预测期,上述投资格局和趋势变化呈加速态势。这些变化与TPP引发的亚太地区生产网络结构及该地区政策导向的改变有关。 The members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are Asia-Pacif- ic countries and their FDIs are spatially correlated. The objective of this paper is to explore the changes and linkage relation for Asia-Pacific countries' FDI. Additionally, it discusses the time effect, spatial diffusion, and mechanism of FDI correlation. The major results are as follows: adopting an investment map can help in explaining the spatial diffusion and durations of specific FDIs, and FDI exhibits features of phase and continuity. As the United States continues to invest in other developing countries, the investments will heighten these countries' dependence on United States' domestic markets. The FDI inflow in Japan is projected to rise, which is the same for other TPP members. Contrariwise, the FD! for Chi- na will decrease slightly while the East Asian production networks with China as their core hub will be severed. Although the influence of non-TPP members will be small in the short run, changes in FDI will increase during the TPP extended forecast period. In conclusion, FDI issues are related to the changes in the Asia- Pacific production network due to TPP and its policy orientation.
作者 魏丹 许培源 WEI Dan;XU Peiyuan(Maritime Silk Road Institute,Huaqiao University,Xiamen 361021)
出处 《国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2018年第4期86-97,共12页 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
基金 国家社会科学基金项目"TPP新规则对我国对外直接投资布局的影响研究"(16BJY122)
关键词 TPP 投资地图 时空自回归模型 TPP Investment Map Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Model
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