出口信用保险对我国出口贸易的空间效应分析——基于省际空间面板的实证检验

Spatial Effects of Export Credit Insurance on China's Export Trade——Empirical Test Based on Provincial Level Spatial Panel

随着我国区域协调发展战略的推进,区域间经济体之间的经贸易往来更加密切,出口信用保险不仅对当地出口贸易存在直接促进效应,还存在空间溢出效应。基于区域间经贸活动的空间相关性,本文构建和分析了出口信用保险对出口贸易直接作用和溢出作用的空间效应传导路径,并以我国31个省级行政地区2009~2015年的相关数据为样本,运用空间面板模型对其空间效应进行了检验,结果表明,出口信用保险对各地区出口贸易的直接促进效应和空间溢出效应都显著为正,且其促进效应的77.67%来自于空间溢出效应。

With the advancement of China＇s regional coordinated develop- ment strategy, the economic and trade ties between the regional economies are becoming closer, so the export credit insurance not only has direct promotion effects on local export trade, but also has spatial spillover effects. Based on the spatial correlation of regional economic and trade ties, this paper constructs and analyzes the spatial effects transmission pathways of direct effects and spillover effects of export credit insurance on the export trade; and according to the 31 provincial administrative regions＇ data of 2009 to 2015, the paper further tests the spatial effects making use of the spatial panel models. The empirical findings show that the direct effects and spillover effects of export credit insurance on export trade are significantly positive, and 77.67% of the total promotion effects come from spatial spillover effects.