宏观经济不确定性、战略变化幅度与投资行为

Macroeconomic Uncertainty,the Scope of Strategic Change and Investment Behavior

基于当前中国新兴加转轨的经济背景,以2002-2013年的A股上市公司为样本,考察了宏观经济不确定性、战略变化幅度和投资行为之间的关系。研究结果表明,宏观经济不确定性与投资效率负相关,宏观经济不确定性不仅会引发投资不足,还会导致投资过度;公司战略变化幅度也会影响公司投资行为,战略变化幅度增大会加剧公司投资不足或投资过度问题。进一步研究发现,战略变化幅度对宏观经济不确定性与投资行为的关系具有正向调节作用,且这种调节作用在经济上升期和民营企业中更为明显。该结论为我国上市公司基于当前经济环境的投资决策和战略管理提供了现实参考。

In the background of Chinese emerging and transitional market, we explore the relationship among macroeconomic uncertain- ty, the scope of strategic change and investment behavior using a sample of A-share listed companies from 2002 to 2013. We find that macroeconomic uncertainty is negatively related with investment efficiency which means that c uncertainty not only leads to underinvestment, but also gives rise to overinvestment. The scope of strategic change also exercises an influence on investment behavior and the scope of strategic change is positively correlated with overinvestment （underinvestment） level. Further, the scope of strategic change can positively adjust the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the investment behavior, especially in private listed companies as well as in economic upswings, the empirical result of which is more significant. The conclusion provides practical reference for the investment decision and strategy management of Chinese listed companies.