谁是“高龄”农民工——基于流动人口监测调查的数据分析

Who Are “Aged” Migrant Workers——Data Analysis Based on Floating Population Monitoring Survey

年龄结构的改变对农民工传统两代次划分方式提出严峻挑战,精确合理的年龄划分方法是目前学术界的研究重点。本文引入机器学习中market basket analysis(购物篮分析法),利用2013-2015年国家卫生和计划生育委员会流动人口动态监测数据,从四大维度构建指标体系,通过多视角分析,进行"高龄"农民工的识别与界定。本文发现:农民工在45岁开始凸显"高龄"特征,在就业、医疗、收入等诸多方面受到挤压,不同于既有高龄农民工"50岁以上"的设定;以传统年龄界定制定农民工扶持与保障政策,会使农民工的需求与发展产生错位,不利于劳动力市场的资源配置与城镇化推进。据此,在明确"高龄"农民工群体及其特征后,提出相关政策建议。

Change in migrant workers＇ age structure makes it challenging to divide them into the traditional two generations. A precise and reasonable age division becomes a focus of academic researches now. Using method of Market Basket Analysis from machine learn- ing, based on the 2013-2015 floating population monitoring data from national health and family planning commission, this paper con- structs a four-dimension index system and identify aged migrant workers through a multi-perspective analysis. Different from the previous ＂over 50 years-old＂ definition of aged workers, the results show that migrant workers began to present prominent ＂aged＂ characteristics at the age of 45, such as unemployment risk, poor health care and income decline. Therefore, supportive and safeguard policy formulated according to traditional age division will dislocate aged migrant worker＇ s demand. And this will have bad influence on resource allocation in the labor market and advancement of urbanization. Consequently, after defining ＂aged＂ migrant workers and summarizing characteris- tics of this group, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations.