历届夏季奥运会中国奖牌走势和项目分布特征研究

Study on the Trend and Distribution of Chinese Medals in Previous Summer Olympic Games

采用文献资料法、数理统计法和逻辑分析法,对我国历届奥运会及各国或地区所获奖牌的结构数量、项目分布等指标进行分析。研究表明:整体呈现"一超两强多弱"的格局,随奥运会影响力的扩大,金牌分布出现分散,获金牌国家数量增多;奖牌第1和前3国家在项目分布上田径、游泳实力雄厚,夺金优势明显;中国在难美性和对抗性项目实力明显,但在夺金大项上存在弱势,国家应大力支持发展我国潜优势项目和夺金大项目,扩大夺金实力。

By means of literature,mathematical statistics and logical analysis,this paper analyzes the structure,quantity and item distribution of medals obtained in Olympic Games. Research shows that： there is a ＂ one-super,two-stronger and majority-weak＂ presentation of all,while the gold medals coming to a larger area as the games became popular in more countries; the top-three countries are stronger in track and field events and swimming,showing a significant advantage; in difficult,artistic and antagonism events,China＇s ability is obverious,but in events of large gold medal quantity,China shows certain weakness. It is suggested that China makes efforts to develop events of large glod medal number and potential advantage.