碳排放权交易价格的影响因素分析——以国内五个代表性开放试点为例

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Trading Price——Taking the Five Representative Open Trials in China as an Example

碳排放权交易价格的影响因素主要包括市场、能源、政策三个方面。能源指标、政策指标、市场指标、环境指标和国外碳市场的EUA价格指标这五类指标是影响国内碳交易排放权价格的主要因素,运用自回归系数不同的FGLS回归方法开展的实证分析得出,碳交易价格与政府发布新政策呈正相关、与天然气价格的增长率呈负相关。天然气价格每下降1%都会导致碳交易价格上升0.17,且每当政府发布环保新政策时,次月的平均碳交易价格都会上升大约0.399。通过对碳排放影响因素的研究,为政府发布节能减排政策和企业生产提出建议。

The influencing factors of the trading price of carbon emission right include market,energy and policy. Energy indicators,policy indicators,market indicators,environmental indicators and foreign carbon market EUA price indicators of these 5 indicators are the main factors affecting the price of carbon trading emissions,the use of the regression coefficient of different Fgls regression method to carry out empirical analysis,the carbon transaction price and the government issued a newpolicy is positively related,negatively correlated with the growth rate of natural gas prices. A 1% drop in the price of natural gas will lead to a 0. 17 rise in the price of carbon trading,and every time the government releases a newgreen policy,the average price of carbon traded will rise by about 0. 399 per month. The study try to provide reasonable advice to the Government and enterprises through the research on the influence factors of carbon emission.