基于模糊事故树的煤尘爆炸事故分析

Analysis on Coal Dust Explosion Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

以陕西某煤矿为例,通过辨识影响陕西某煤矿煤尘爆炸的危险因素,构建了基于模糊事故树的煤尘爆炸评价模型,评价了该煤矿煤尘爆炸危险性。首先通过专家打分得到各基本事件的模糊概率,然后用梯形模糊数来表示各不定事件发生的概率,最后计算各基本事件的重要性并对其进行排序,分析得出发生概率较高的基本事件,以此来确定合理的防爆措施。该方法对煤尘爆炸事故分析具有直接的指导意义,可以在一定程度上提高煤矿的安全性。

Take a coal mine in Shaanxi Province as an example, building the coal dust explosion evaluation model based on fuzzy fault tree analysis （FFTA） by identifying the risk factors that affected the coal dust explosion, and then evaluated the hazard of coal dust explosion. First of all, the fuzzy probability of each basic event （BE） is obtained by expert scoring. Then the occurrence probability of each indefinite event is expressed by trapezoidal fuzzy number. Finally, calculating and sorting the importance of each BE, and the BE with high probability is obtained, in order to determine a reasonable explosion-proof measures. This method has direct guiding significance for the analysis of coal dust explosion accident and can improve the safety of coal mine to some extent.