吉林省肉羊饲养规模选择的研究及肉羊产业发展建议

Study on the breeding sacle selection of mutton sheep in Jilin Province

吉林省拥有广阔的草原资源和农副产品饲料资源,而近年来由于饲养规模的局限性,限制了吉林省肉羊养殖的发展空间。笔者以灰色局势决策法为基础,以2007—2016年10年间吉林省散养、小规模、中规模以及大规模养殖的生产成本、净利润等各因素的10年均值为效果测度,通过综合决策矩阵进行对比分析,最后通过矩阵中数值的大小来判断吉林省肉羊养殖的最适规模。结果表明：以吉林省特有的自然资源、环境以及人文因素为基础,大规模养殖相较其他规模来说更适合吉林省的养殖条件。基于此,对吉林省未来肉羊养殖业的可持续发展提出合理化的建议,以期为吉林省调整省内农业结构、改善＂三农＂国计民生、保障农民增收创收提供帮助。

Jilin Province has broader grassland resources and agricultural by-products feed resources than inland areas. In recent years,due to the limitation of breeding scale,the development space of Jilin mutton sheep breeding has been limited. Based on the gray situation decision method,the author takes the mean data of the production cost and net profit by backyard,middle-small scale and large scale breeding model in2007—2016 as effect measurements,through comprehensive analysis of the decision-making matrix,and the optimum sheep breeding scale in Jilin is determined according to the size of the numeric value in the matrix. The results show that considering the unique natural resources,environment and human factors in Jilin Province,large-scale breeding is more suitable for Jilin＇s breeding conditions than other scales. Based on this,the rational suggestions are put forward for the sustainable development of the future meat sheep breeding industry in Jilin Province,so as to provide help for adjusting the agricultural structure,improve the rural national economy and ensure the increase of income for farmers in Jilin Province.