城市出租车规模预测研究

Predictive Study on City Taxi Scale

通过分析城市出租车发展规模的影响因素,在修正后的系统动力学模型和实载率控制法优缺点分析基础上,将两种方法进行组合,并结合重庆市主城区2011—2015年出租汽车发展相关数据,分析得出系统动力学模型参数,同时应用3种预测方法对2011—2015年出租车拥有量进行检验。结果表明:组合预测模型预测精度高于系统动力学模型和实载率控制法的预测精度,说明组合预测模型具有有效性和可行性,对城市出租汽车合理规模的确定有重要的参考价值。

By analyzing the factors of the development scale of city taxis,based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the modified system dynamics model and the real load rate control method,the two methods were combined.Then,combined with the Chongqing city 2011—2015 and rental car development related data,the system dynamics model parameters were obtained.Meanwhile,three kinds of prediction method were applied to examine 2011—2015 taxi ownership.The results show that the combination forecasting model prediction accuracy is higher than that of the system dynamics model,and the actual loading rate control method.This indicates that the combination forecasting model is effective and feasible,and has important reference value to determine the reasonable scale of city taxis.