重大突发事件舆情演化规律的知识体系和创新空间

Knowledge Base of and Research Agenda for Public Opinion Analysis in Emergencies

舆情应对是处置重大突发事件的一个重要主题。本文系统梳理了近年来我国舆情研究的发展脉络,从舆情研究的阶段特征、基础理论以及舆情演化规律的实证研究三个方面总结了已有的知识体系,认为现有研究的不足之处表现在对移动互联网舆情研究相对滞后、舆情主体行为及动机研究薄弱、舆情应对的正当性和合法性研究严重缺失以及舆情应对能力评价体系研究缺乏等方面,由此辨识了未来可能的创新空间。

Response to public opinion is an important action in dealing with major emergency.This article reviewed the development of public opinion analysisin China in recent years and summarized the existing knowledge system from three aspects：characteristics in different stages,fundamental theories and evolutionary pattern of public opinion.This article identified some limitations of current studies.These limitations include lagging research about public opinion in mobile internet,weak research about incentives and behaviors of main actors,lack of research about legitimacy of response to public opinion,and lack of research about capacity assessment.Drawing on the comprehensive review,this article elaborated research agenda in near future.