基于D-S证据理论的预警卫星探测效能评估方法

An Evaluation Method of Early Warning Satellite Detection Efficiency Based on D-S Evidence Theory

为减少预警探测卫星探测效能评估中的不确定性,弥补模糊层次分析法等传统评估方法在处理不确定问题上的不足,提出了一种基于D-S证据理论(Dempster-Shafer证据理论)的效能评估方法。该方法将评估指标和评估信息看作是D-S证据理论中的焦元和证据源,再利用Dempster聚合规则进行聚合。结果表明:此方法比传统的模糊AHP法具有更强的处理不确定性信息的能力,可以提高评估的精度。

In order to decrease the uncertainty on the efficiency evaluation of early warning satellite detection, and compensate for the deficiencies of traditional methods such as FAHP（fuzzy analytic hierarchy process） when dealing with uncertain problem, this paper proposed an evaluation method based on D-S evidence theory. This method regards evaluation indexes and evaluation information as focal elements and evidence source in D-S evidence theory, and then use Dempster fusion rule to fuse evaluation information. It can be concluded in the result that compared with conventional FAHP, the method in this paper has stronger ability to deal with the uncertain information, which can improve the evaluation accuracy.