“一带一路”物流绩效及其对中国贸易的影响分析

Logistics Performance of Belt and Road Initiative and Its Influence on China's Trade

基于世界银行发布的LPI指数,对"一带一路"周边主要国家的物流绩效现状及其差异进行分析,并构建面板数据模型比较了物流绩效各分项指标对中国与"一带一路"相关国家之间贸易的影响程度。研究发现,LPI对中国与"一带一路"相关国家贸易有很强的正向关系,LPI六个分项指标中,对贸易影响力的排序为:物流服务水平、物流基础设施、运输价格、海关绩效、货物可追溯性和货物运输及时性。这一发现有利于从物流的角度判断影响"一带一路"贸易的主要因素,从而为"一带一路"周边国家物流绩效的改善和贸易的发展提供理论借鉴。

In this paper, based on the LPI index published by the World Bank, we analyzed the logistics performance of the major countries in the Belt and Road Initiative and their differences, and established a panel data model to compare the influence of the subindexes of logistics performance on the trade between China and other Belt and Road countries. It is found that the LPI has a strong positive correlation with the trade between China and these countries and the six sub-indexes of LPI are in the following order in term of their impact on the trade： logistics service level, logistics infrastructure, transportation price, customs performance, cargo traceability, and freight transportation timeliness.