吉林玉米生长期土壤水分规律分析

Analysis of Soil Moisture Regularity in Jilin Maize Growing Period

为研究吉林省玉米生长期土壤水分规律,利用吉林省春玉米主要种植区公主岭、农安、榆树3站的1997-2013年土壤水分资料,应用数理统计方法,分析了3地的土壤水分规律,结果表明:3地平均土壤相对湿度为84%~85%,且都有逐年上升趋势;春玉米在拔节之前对土壤水分要求不高,拔节之后对土壤水分需求逐渐增大,在乳熟前后达到峰值;根据土壤相对湿度干旱指标,1997-2012年,3个站点在玉米各个发育期都有30%左右的干旱频率,但干旱程度都不高;利用土壤相对湿度构建春玉米产量的各种预报方程中,公主岭、农安适用多元线性回归方程,平均拟合相对误差分别为8.40%、8.75%,预报相对误差分别为0.61%、3.89%;榆树站多元线性回归方程、曲线估计方程都可使用,平均拟合误差分别为7.29%、6.99%,预报误差分别为2.39%、5.20%。可为吉林省春玉米的种植提供气象服务依据。

In order to study soil moisture regularity in maize growing period of Jilin,the soil moisture data which from1997 to 2013 in the main planting areas of spring maize in Jilin Province（ Gongzhuling,Nong＇an and Yushu） were analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows： the relative soil moisture was 84%-85%,and there was a rising trend year by year. The soil moisture requirements before the jointing of Sspring maize was not high,and the demand for soil moisture gradually increased after jointing. It reaches the peak at milk maturity. Based on the relative soil moisture drought index,from 1997 to 2012,three sites had a dry frequency of about 30% in each period,but the degree of drought is not high. In the various forecasting equations of spring maize yield based on relative soil humidity,Gongzhuling and Nong＇an were suitable for multiple linear regression equations,and the relative error of average fitting were 8.40% and 8.57% respectively,and the relative error of forecast were 0.61% and 3.89% respectively. The multiple linear regression equation and curve estimation equation can be used in Yushu,with the average fitting error of 7.29% and 6.99% respectively,and the forecast errors are 2.39% and 5.20% respectively.The above results can provide the basis of meteorological service for the cultivation of spring maize in Jilin Province.