基于改进GM(1,1)模型的新疆煤炭消费预测

Prediction of Xinjiang Coal Consumption Based on Optimized GM(1,1)Model

科学地预测煤炭消费量可为煤炭生产、进口、消费提供可靠的理论依据，建立了1998—2015年新疆煤炭消费的非线性回归的GM（1，1）模型，并预测了2016—2030年的值．研究表明：改进GM（1，1）模型的预测效果良好，新疆煤炭消费量在2016—2030年将持续出现增长趋势，但增速有所下降．

Scientifically predict the coal consumption for coal production, imports, consumption provides reliable theoretical basis, this paper established a nonlinear regression of the Xinjiang coal consumption in 1998-2015 of GM （1, 1） model, and predict the value of 2016 2030. The research shows that the improvement of the GM （1, 1） model is good, and coal consumption in xinjiang will continue to increase in 2016-2030, but at a slower rate.