RCEP对中国机电产品出口的影响--基于GTAP模拟分析

The Impact of RCEP on the Exports of China's Mechanical and Electrical Products: Based on GTAP Simulation

RCEP是中国高度重视并积极推进的区域自由贸易协定,文章运用区域显示性比较优势指数、出口相似度指数和贸易互补性指数,探讨了1996-2016年中国与其他RCEP成员机电产品的贸易竞争性和互补性。在此基础上,采用GTAP软件分析了RCEP对中国机电产品出口的影响。研究发现:(1)RCEP的实施将促进中国机电产品出口,特别是技术性贸易壁垒的削减将产生显著正效应。(2)中国金属制品对印度和澳大利亚的出口增幅较大;机电设备对韩国和东盟的出口显著增加;运输工具和仪表仪器相对于日韩处于明显劣势,对其出口增幅较小,但对印度的出口增长率较高。

This paper discusses the competiton and complementarity of mechanical and electrical products between China and other RCEP members from1996 to 2016 by using RRCA,ESI and TCI. Based on this,we use GTAP to analyze the impact of RCEP on the exports of China's mechanical and electrical products. Results show that:(1) The imple-mentation of RCEP will promote the exports of China's mechanical and electronic products,and the reduction of technical barriers to trade will have a significant positive effect.(2) China's metalware exports to India and Australia will rise sharply,and electromechanical device exports to Korea and ASEAN will increase significantly. The growth rate of China's transportation and instrumentation exports to Japan and Korea will be relatively low because of the disadvantage compared with the two countries,but the growth rate of China's exports to India will be higher.