中国众筹成功率影响因素研究--以淘宝众筹为例

Research of Influence Factors on Success of Chinese Crowdfunding Projects: Take Taobao Crowdfunding Platform for an Example

分析众筹项目筹款结果的影响因素,有助于更加深入地了解众筹平台的运行特征,提高融资成功的概率。以淘宝众筹为研究对象,抓取项目数据,选择达成率的每日增额为被解释变量,从包含投资者行为的时变变量和传递项目信号的非时变信息两个角度分析其影响因素。

It's necessary for founders to discuss which factors affect the result of crowdfunding. In order to analyze the factors from two perspectives,including time-varying variables that contain investor behavior and non-time-varying variables which transmit quality signals,we collected the data from Taobao crowdfunding platform and choose the change of percent of goal funded every day to be the dependent variable. The analysis reveals that the funding process can divided into two stages. At the first stage,it shows the herding effect,the increase of funders accelerated the crowdfunding. As the investors increasing,the bystander effect turns out that slow down the growth of funding. We also found that goal,duration and reward categories as quality signals significantly affect the change of achievement ratio. The shorter duration,the more reward categories and getting recommend by platform will result in the quicker growth of achievement ratio,and somehow increase the chance of success. And a project with a too big or a too small goal will not help attained the goal of project.