美国重返TPP的动机和可能性分析

Motivation and Probability of the U.S.Returning to TPP

特朗普在2018年1月于达沃斯论坛上公开表示考虑重新加入TPP,这将对亚太贸易自由化进程和我国的经贸利益产生一定影响。本文结合TPP和CPTPP的发展历程,在贸易政策的政治经济学分析基础上,对美国重返TPP的动机和可能性进行分析。通过对TPP的历史、特朗普政府的亚太政策、亚太FTA基本情况的分析,结合美国贸易政策制定的国际和国内博弈,笔者认为美国重返亚太的动机比较强烈,重返TPP具有一定的现实基础。在特朗普上台后,美国为振兴本国经济奉行逆全球化的贸易保护主义,同时延续了之前的"重返亚太"战略持续对中国施压,而重新加入TPP则是"重返亚太"的关键举措。站在中国的角度,需要对美国重返TPP做好充分应对准备,在维护自身的发展和稳定、深化改革的同时,在全球经济治理中扮演更为重要的角色,推动建立国际经济新秩序,推动世界经济朝着普惠共赢的方向发展。

Trump announced that the U.S.would consider joining TPP again at the Davos Forum in January,2018,which will influence the Asia-Pacific trade liberalization process and our country＇s economic benefit.This article analyzes the motivation and possibility of the U.S.returning to TPP on the base of trade policy＇s political and economic analysis and TPP＇s history.We believe the U.S.has adequate motivation and certain possibility to return to Asia-Pacific area by the review of TPP＇s history,Trump＇s Asia-Pacific policy and this area＇s free trade agreement.After Trump＇s inauguration,the U.S.government has been taking trade protection policy and has continued＂Return to Asia-Pacific Area＂strategy to rejuvenate native economy.Taking Chinese strategic benefit into account,China needs to be prepared for a series of consequences and maintains its prosperity and stability as well as its deep reform process.In the meanwhile,China will continue playing a much more indispensable role in global economy management to build an up-dated international economic order and make the world economy more balanced and mutual-beneficial.