凉水河子站年径流变化趋势及突变分析

Annual runoff change trend and mutation analysis of Liangshuihezi Station

本文选取凉水河子站1960—2012年的实测径流资料,基于滑动平均法、矩平法、累积滤波器法、MannKendall趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、R/S分析法等对径流的年际变化特征、趋势变化、突变特征和持续性进行分析研究。研究表明:凉水河子站径流年际变化很大、丰枯悬殊,以枯水年为主。径流整体呈下降趋势,且趋势显著。

Measured runoff data of Liangshuihezi Station from 1960—2012 is selected in the paper. The runoff inter-annual variability characteristics,change trend,mutation characteristics and persistence are analyzed based on moving average method,moment method,cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall trend method,Mann-Kendall mutation test method,R/S analysis method,etc. The study shows that Liangshuihezi Station has great runoff annual variation and great difference in flood season and dry season. The runoff is decreasing as a whole with significant trend.