浅析新疆伊犁河流域50余年降水时空分布

Analysis on spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in Xinjiang Ili River Basin for more than 50 years

本文利用1960—2013年伊犁河流域6个气象站点的降水数据,采用线性回归、经验正交函数(EOF)分解和Mann-Kendall突变性检验等方法,分析了流域50余年降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:从时间变化来看,在0.05显著性水平上,除春季降水呈现明显减小趋势外(-6.23mm/10a),其他季节和全年降水量的变化均不明显。EOF分解结果显示:全年和四季降水的空间分布存在总体一致型和东南——西北区域反位相型的分布类型。

The precipitation data of six meteorological site in Ili River Basin from 1960 to 2013 is utilized,linear regression,Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） decomposition,Mann-Kendall mutation test and other methods are adopted for analyzing spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation of the river basin for more than 50 years. The results show that the precipitation has prominent decreasing trend in spring（-6. 23 mm/10 a） at the significance level of 0. 05 according to time change,the precipitation changes in other seasons and the whole year are not prominent. The results of EOF decomposition show that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the whole year and the four seasons is consistent as the whole,and the southeast the southeast——the northwest area shows out-of phase type.