中国风电产业景气指数构建与波动分析

Analysis of Construction and Fluctuation of Prosperity Index of Wind Power Industry in China

我国风电产业近年来发展迅速,但是存在市场波动性较强、企业营利能力不足等问题。对风电产业发展景气程度进行监测和预估,可以增强产业投资决策和政策制定的前瞻性,有利于产业健康发展。文章通过选取风电产业上市公司的相关财务指标,并纳入经济统计指标和百度指数,建立了多个合成指数,再对合成指数进行对比分析,筛选出指示效果最佳的风电产业一致景气指数和先行景气指数。结果显示:上市公司销售费用、所得税费、全国合成纤维产量,及部分百度搜索指数可用于构建一致指数;上市公司长期应收款、固定资产等财务指标、工业增加值、钢材销售量、十种有色金属产量,及部分百度搜索指数可用于构建先行指数;加入经济指标与百度指数后合成的指数更便于指示行业发展。基于对景气指数的波动特征分析,发现2011年以来我国风电产业经历了两轮较大的景气周期;近年来经过调整后逐渐复苏,2018年景气指数有上升趋势。

China’s wind power industry has been developing rapidly in recent years,but there are some problems in this respect such as strong market volatility and insufficient corporate profitability.Monitoring and predicting the wind power industry development can improve the foresight of investment decision-making and policy-making in the wind power industry,which is conducive to the development of the industry.In this paper,a series of prosperity indices of wind power industry were built and compared,which were composited by financial indices of listed companies in wind power industry,with or without of macroeconomic indicators and Baidu Indices.Then the most effective consistent and antecedent prosperity indices in wind power industry were found.The results show that sales expense,income taxes,national synthetic fiber production and Baidu Indices of some words can be used to build the consistent prosperity index,while long-term receivables,fixed assets of list companies,industrial added value,steel sales,ten types of non-ferrous metal production and Baidu Indices of some words can be used to build the antecedent prosperity index.The composite index with macroeconomic factors and Baidu Indices is better in indicating the industry development than that without macroeconomic indices and Baidu Indices.It is shown that China’s wind power industry has experienced two large business cycles in the past eight years based on the fluctuant features of prosperity index.The industry has been recovering gradually after adjustment,and the prosperity index is in a new growth cycle in 2018.