核能对全球变暖和人类健康影响初步研究

Preliminary Study on Global Warming and Human Health Impacts of Nuclear Power

核能作为一种安全、清洁、高效的能源,对于改善人类生活环境、提高人民健康水平、促进经济社会可持续发展是非常有利的,然而核能带来的辐射健康风险使其发展一直备受争议,因此有必要对核能带来的效益和风险进行综合评估,以全面地分析核能带来的影响。本文基于三种典型核能发展预测方案,从全球变暖和人类健康的角度,定量分析了2016—2050年间核能在局部地区和全球范围内对于社会的潜在效益和风险。结果表明使用核电替代煤电带来的效益远超过它的潜在风险,尤其是对于贫困地区,社会经济发展水平越低,适度发展核能将会获得更多的效益。分析结果表明,在三种典型核能发展预测方案下,至21世纪中期,核能在全球范围内可以减少0.05~0.22℃温升,避免170~1 400万人死亡,估计的效益价值16.7~115万亿美元。

Nuclear power helps us attain multiple aspects of sustainability,such as improving environment,health and economics. However,nuclear power comes with health risk of radiation,leading to different attitudes to the development of nuclear power,and it is thus necessary to make comprehensive analysis for the benefit and risk of nuclear power. Here we show the regional and global impacts of nuclear power on climate and human health based on three typical nuclear power projections from 2016 to 2050. The results show that nuclear power has competitive advantages over coal, even considering the radiation risk. In particular,less developed regions will benefit more from the replacement of coal by nuclear power. We also demonstrate that the projected global use of nuclear power to 2050 would prevent the temperature increase of 0.05~0.22 ℃ and 1.7~14.0 million deaths that would result from coal power,and the monetized benefits range from US$16.7 to US$115.0 trillion.