滑坡预测预报研究现状与发展趋势

Current Status and Future Development of Landslide Prediction Research

预测预报滑坡的形成一直是国内外滑坡灾害研究的重点与热点问题,而其诱发因素多样复杂,以及滑坡演化过程的极其不稳定等原因又均会导致获取滑坡破坏信息的难度.该文介绍了地质灾害中滑坡的几种基本特征及其类型、滑坡的稳定性分析状况等,探究了滑坡不同变形阶段的演化规律,指出了目前关于滑坡破坏的理论研究仍处于发展阶段,动态监测的相关技术仍不是十分成熟,且监测周期长、耗费高,并指明了预测预报滑坡滑动时间的研究方向.对滑坡形成的有效预测预报能够减少滑坡发生时的人员伤亡,降低灾害发生造成的损失.

The formation and prediction of landslide has always been the focus of landslide disaster research both at home and abroad.However,its contributors are complex,and the instability of landslide evolution process makes it difficult to obtain its damage information.This paper introduces several basic characteristics and types of landslides in geological disasters.Its stability analysis and evolution in different deformation stages are also explored.As the current theoretical research on landslide damage is still in the development stage,the dynamic monitoring technology is imperfect,long period and costly.Therefore,the research of predicting direction and time is pointed out,which can reduce the casualties and the loss caused by the disasters.