我国产业结构服务化的影响因素分析——基于全国31个省市的面板数据

The Research on the Influencing Factors of the Structural Industrial Service——An analysis based on the panel date of 31 provinces

随着经济的发展,服务经济在国民经济中地位提高,我国产业结构出现服务化趋势。但相比于发达国家,我国服务业发展水平有待提高。本文引入经济发展水平、人力资本、科技创新、城镇化水平、居民消费、对外贸易六大因素,利用中国2004-2015年省际面板数据实证分析各因素对产业结构服务化的影响,结果发现前六者推动了产业结构服务化,而对外贸易显著抑制了服务化发展。针对不同因素的不同影响,我国应综合考虑多方面因素,推动服务业生产率提高和内部结构优化,实现产业结构向服务化转型升级。

With the development of economy, service economy is more and more important in the national economy and the struc-tural industrial service has appeared in China. However, compared with developed countries, the service economy still have deficien-cies. This paper introduces the economic development level, scientific, technological innovation, urbanization level, human capital,residents＇ consumption and foreign trade these six factors, using the panel data of China＇s provinces from 2004 to 2015,analysis the in-fluence of various factors on the industrial structure of service. The result shows that the first six have a promoting effect on industrialstructure of service, but the foreign trade significantly inhibit the service-oriented industrial structure. According to different factors,our country should consider the various factors that promote productivity in service industry and the internal structure optimization, so asto promote the development process of the service-oriented industry structure of our country.