新时期中国货币数量需求分析:理论模型与计量实证

The Analysis of Money Quantity Demand in the new period China:Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence

基于中国经济大转型的时代特征,通过理论分析,把包括中国地下经济规模隐性变量纳入货币需求影响因素的考察范围,针对M1和M2建立了中国新时期货币需求函数理论模型。选取2000到2015年的年度数据,对理论模型进行了实证研究,研究发现影响中国M1层次的货币需求主要因素是包括地下经济的总名义国民收入和经济货币化水平,机会成本和汇率对中国M1层次的货币需求影响不显著;影响中国M2层次的货币需求主要因素是包括地下经济的总名义国民收入、经济货币化水平和机会成本,汇率对中国M2层次的货币需求影响也不显著。

Based on the times characteristics of China＇s great economic transition,through theory analysis,bringing the hidden variables of underground economic scale to the study scope of influencing factors of money demand,this paper constitutes the theoretical model of money demand function of Chinese M1 and M2 in the new period. This paper empirically analyses the theoretical model using the Annual data from 2000 to 2015. The findings are the principal factors that affect the Chinese M1 demand are total nominal national income and economy monetization level,the effect of opportunity cost and exchange rate on M1 is not prominent,the principal factors that affect the Chinese M2 demand are total nominal national income,economy monetization level and opportunity cost,the effect of exchange rate on M2 is also not prominent.