京津冀地区科技人才分布空间格局演化及其驱动因素

Spatial Pattern Evolution of Scientific Talents Distribution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Its Driving Factors

利用第五次、第六次人口普查数据和2016年京津冀地区各市的统计年鉴资料,运用洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数和科技人才密度相对变化率等指标,分析了2000—2015年京津冀地区13个市的科技人才分布空间格局的演化,并选取了10个指标,运用偏最小二乘法探析了京津冀地区科技人才分布的驱动要素。研究发现:2000—2015年京津冀地区科技人才密度的排序始终是北京>天津>河北,且呈现"双核心+多轴式"空间分布格局;京津冀地区的科技人才密度集中趋势逐年加强,科技人才密度高的城市占地面积小;从科技人才密度变化类型看,2000—2015年期间迅速提高型城市占比为30.77%,大部分属于一线城市,逐渐提高型城市和缓慢提高型城市共占比69.23%,大部分属于三到五线城市;经济发展水平和科技发展水平是驱动京津冀地区科技人才分布的主要因素。

According to the population census data in 2000 and 2010 and the statistical yearbook in 2015,this paper uses Lorenz curve,relative change rate of scientific talents density to analyze the spatial pattern evolution of scientific talents distribution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in 2000-2015,which consists of 13 cites.Then based on the partial least squares（PLS）regression method,it recognizes 10 factors to make a quantitative analysis on the spatial pattern evolution of scientific talents distribution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.Major conclusion can be drawn as follows：From the stand point of overall distribution pattern changes in nearly 16 years,average scientific talent density takes on a trend of Beijing〉Tianjin〉Heibei,and it shows the spatial distribution pattern of ＂double cores＋ multi axis＂;The concentration of scientific talents density has increased year by year,and the city with high scientific talents density occupies small land area;From the perspective of the change type of scientific talents density,the rapidly improving cities account for 30.77%in 2000-2015 years,and most of them are the first line cities;Gradually,increasing-type cities and slowly increasing-type cities account for 69.23%,most of them are the third to fifth line cities;economic development level and scientific and technological development level are the main drivers impacting the distribution of scientific talents in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.