成都市城市脆弱性演变研究

On the Evolution of Urban Vulnerability in Chengdu

聚焦资源-经济-社会-生态4个子系统,构建了城市脆弱性等级评价体系,应用状态空间法对成都市城市脆弱性特征进行评价与分析。研究表明:2000—2015年,除生态子系统脆弱性外,资源、经济和社会子系统脆弱性均不同程度下降,各子系统呈现不均衡变化,社会和经济子系统对城市综合脆弱性更为敏感,重大事件对城市脆弱性影响显著;城市综合脆弱性呈震荡式下降,并可划分为2002—2006年较低脆弱、2007—2011年为较强脆弱和2012—2015年较低脆弱3个阶段,成都城市脆弱性从资源主导型脆弱性向生态、社会主导型脆弱性转变。在未来城市发展中应逐步实现资源、经济、社会、生态4个子系统的动态平衡发展。

Based on the four subsystems of resource,economy,society and ecology,this paper rebuilt the evaluation system of urban vulnerability grade,and applied the state-space method to evaluate and analyze the characteristics of urban vulnerability in Chengdu city.The research showed that except ecological vulnerability,the vulnerabilities of resources,economy,and society all declined in varying degrees from 2000 to 2015 and these four subsystems showed unbalanced changes.Specifically,social and economic subsystems were more sensitive to the comprehensive vulnerability of Chengdu city,meanwhile significant events played an important role on it.And the comprehensive vulnerability presented a concussive decline,which can be divided into three stages of relatively-low vulnerability from 2002 to 2006,relatively-strong vulnerability from 2007 to 2011 and rather low vulnerability from 2012 to 2015 compared with the first two stages.It is shown that the vulnerability of Chengdu city has already changed from resource-based vulnerability to ecological-society-based one.Thus,the dynamic balance of the four subsystems of resources,economy,society,and ecology should be gradually realized in the future development of Chengdu.