当前我国地方政府债务风险与融资平台转型分析

Study on China Local Government Debt Risk and the Transformation of Their Financing Platforms

伴随我国经济增速稳中趋缓,宏观调控重心由"稳增长"向"防风险"转变,十九大报告强调要更加自觉地防范各种风险,并将防范化解重大风险列入三大攻坚战之首,体现了"把防控风险放在更加突出位置"的忧患意识和底线思维。防范地方政府债务风险是牢牢守住不发生系统性及区域性风险底线的必然要求与重中之重。自2014年新《预算法》颁布以来,我国地方债务管理机制逐步成熟,地方债务限额管理、应急处置、监督问责等相关制度不断完善,地方债务风险总体可控,但对于未纳入地方政府直接债务统计的隐性债务仍不容忽视,且该类债务风险易通过层层嵌套的资金链条快速扩散,是触发区域性风险与系统性风险的主要隐患。2017年以来,国家针对防范地方债务风险频频"亮剑",在监管政策密集出台及问责高压下,地方违法违规举债行为进一步明晰,融资平台、地方国企与地方政府的信用进一步剥离,责任边界进一步明确,隐性债务增量得到有效遏制。但对于存量债务中依托政府信用背书业已形成的隐性债务,目前市场各方尚未有明确统计及深入测算。对于隐性债务风险可知,方能做到可防、可控。本文从我国地方债务演化过程出发,从不同口径对我国地方政府隐性债务进行测算,并结合隐性债务重要举债主体融资平台转型进程,深入剖析我国防范地方债务风险的路径。

With China＇s economic development entering the ＂new norm＂, the growth of economy is slowing down steadily, and the core of macro-economic regulation transforms from ＂steady growth＂ to ＂risk prevention＂. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the more conscious of preventing various risks, dissolving major risks being the top of the three critical battles, which embodies the sense of anxiety and the bottom line thinking of ＂putting risk prevention in a more prominent position＂. Preventing the risk of local government debt is an inevitable requirement and is the top priority of firmly guarding the bottom line without systemic risk and regional risk. Since the promulgation of the new budget law in 2014, China＇s local debt management system is gradually becoming mature, along with the local debt quota management, emergency disposal, supervision and accountability and other related systems becoming constantly improved. The local debt risks are generally controlled. However, the implicit debt that has not been included in the local government＇s direct debt cannot be ignored, and this kind of risk can easily spread through the nesting chain of capitals,which is an important hidden danger to trigger regional and systemic risks. Since 2017, in order to prevent the local debt risk, frequent ＂bright swords＂ have been used. Under the high pressure of the regulatory policies and accountability, the behavior of local illegal leverage has been further clarified, the financing platforms and local state enterprises are further stripped from the local government＇s credit, the responsibility boundary is clearer,and the implicit debt increment is effectively suppressed. However, at present, the market has not yet made clear statistics and in-depth calculations of the implicit debt that resulted from government＇s credit. Recognizing the risk of implicit debt, and then we can further prevent and control it. Based on the evolution process of local debt, this paper calculates the implicit debt of local government from different calibers, combining the transformation process of financing platforms and analyzing the paths of preventing local debt risk.