分析多层次多目标重点避让优选模型的航道船舶碰撞危险度分析

Risk Analysis of Ship Collision Based on Multi-level and Multi-objective Priority Avoidance Model

针对船舶碰撞严重威肋、着船舶水上航行的安全问题,提出多层次多目标重点避让优选模型(Multi level and multi target key avoidance optimization model,MLMTKAO)。通过选取航道船舶碰撞危险度作为状态变量,船舶会遇方式、风速和能见度作为控制变量,利用多层次多目标重点避让优选模型分析了碰撞危阶度和僻计难易程度对重点僻计船决策的影响。实验表明:该方法具有较高的执行效率和可扩展性,有效地避免了由于难以确定目标而造成的决策的主观任意性。

In view of the safety problems of ship collision in severe ribs and ships sailing on water,a multi level and multi target key avoidance optimization model（ Multi level and multi target key avoidance optimization model,MLMTKAO） is proposed. The ship collision risk degree is selected as the state variable. The mode,wind speed and visibility of the ship are used as control variables. The impact of the collision risk order and the difficulty degree on the decision of the key remote planning ship is analyzed by the multi level and multi target key avoidance optimization model. The experimental results show that the method has high execution efficiency and extensibility,and effectively avoids the subjective arbitrariness of decision making due to the difficulty of determining the target.