吉尔吉斯斯坦经济风险及未来政策走向探析

Analysis of Economic Risks and the Future Policy Trends of Kyrgyzstan

受全球经济低迷和俄罗斯与西方相互制裁的影响,吉尔吉斯斯坦陷入增长困境。市场化程度较高、政府控制能力弱,使吉成为中亚地区经济风险最高的国家,具体表现为:由政治动荡导致的国家脆弱性上升、由内生动力不足引起的对外部依赖严重。侨汇和对外贸易是吉国内生产总值和财政收入的重要来源,其经济增长在很大程度上受到主要劳务输出国和贸易伙伴国——俄罗斯的影响。加入欧亚经济联盟是吉尔吉斯斯坦无法回避的政策选择。经历了入盟初期短暂的"挫败"后,吉对外贸易逐渐恢复到危机前水平。"丝绸之路经济带"在中亚地区的推进为吉平衡对外经济关系提供了可替代方案,中国已连续多年成为吉最大债权国。与此同时,吉政府通过制定国家中长期发展规划,继续推动市场化改革,努力协调财政货币政策、投资政策和创新政策的关系,以期实现经济发展和社会稳定。

Central Asian states, including Kyrgyzstan, have been stuck in growth diffculties due to the global economic downturn and mutual sanctions between Russia and the west. High degree of marketization and low degree of government control ability make the high risks in the Central Asia countries. The risks include： rise of the national vulnerability caused by political turmoil and serious external dependence caused byinsufficient internal driving force.Remittances and foreign trade are very important sources of GDP of and fscal revenue for Kyrgyzstan. Its economic growth has been largely affected by Russia, which is the main export destination of labor and trading partner for Kyrgyzstan.Joining the Eurasian economic union is an unavoidable policy option for Kyrgyzstan. After a brief setback in the early days of its accession to the Union,Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade gradually recovered to the pre-crisis level.The development of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia has provided an alternative solution for Kyrgyzstan to balance its foreign economic relations.China has been Kyrgyzstan＇s largest creditor for many years. At the same time, the Kyrgyzstan government formulates long-term national development plan, continuing to promote market-oriented reform, making efforts to coordinate correlation between fscal and monetary policy, investment policy and the innovation policy in order to achieve economic development and social stability.