青岛市与“一带一路”国家产能合作产业选择研究

Research on the industrial selection of production capacity cooperation between Qingdao city and the countries of “the Belt and Road”

"一带一路"沿线的大部分国家,制造业发展水平较低,基建严重不足,但是有18个国家2016年的GDP增速超过5%,因此合作需求很大。利用主成分-因子分析法对青岛市的30个产业及"一带一路"国家的产业竞争力进行分析,再利用区位商法,得出青岛的优势制造产业有铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业,电气机械和器材制造业,金属制品业,计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业,文教、工美、体育和娱乐用品制造业等。由此建议,青岛市可优先与北亚地区在能源的引进和基建的输出上开展合作,与中东欧地区主要集中于电信、清洁能源领域的合作,与东南亚地区在铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业领域开展合作,与南亚地区集中于农产品、畜牧产品的引进和基建的输出等。

The level of manufacturing is lower and the infrastructure is severely inadequate in the most of the countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂. However, the GDP growth rate of 18 countries in 2016 is more than 5%, so there is a huge demand for the cooperation. This study analyzes the industrial competitiveness of the 30 industries of Qingdao and the countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂ by using the method of principal component-factor analysis, and by adopting the location quotient method, it is concluded that Qingdao＇s dominant manufacturing industry are the manufacturing industry of transportation equipment, such as the railway, the shipbuilding and the aerospace; the manufacturing industry of electrical machinery and equipment; the manufacturing industry of metal product; the manufacturing industry of electronic equipment, such as the computer and the communications; the products manufacturing of the culture and education, the arts and crafts, the sports and the entertainment, and so on. Based on the research, we advise that Qingdao should give priority to the cooperation with North Asia in the energy import and infrastructure output, with Central and Eastern Europe in the field of telecommunications and clean energy, with Southeast Asia in the manufacturing of railways, ships, aerospace and other transport equipments, and with South Asia in the import of agricultural products, livestock products and the export of infrastructure.