我国城镇职工养老金收支动态平衡及其实现路径研究

Research on the Dynamic Balance and Its Realization Path of Urban Employees' Pension Income and Expenditure in China

养老金收支缺口将是我国未来较长时期面临的重大问题。本文通过分析城镇职工养老金收支动态平衡运行机理,建立养老金收入支出数学模型,并选取和调整养老保险各项参量指标取值,测算城镇职工养老基金收入、支出及其差额变动情况。实证结果表明:单独调整某一参量无法解决养老金缺口问题,只有对多个参量进行综合性调整,有效提高养老基金投资收益,才能使养老金收入支出达到动态平衡。相应的实现路径是:加强证券市场监管,有效增强养老基金"造血"功能,在国有资本一次性划转充实养老保险基金基础上,提高养老基金投资收益率,确保养老基金保值增值。

The gap between the income and expenditure of the pension is a major problem facing China for a long period of time. This paper establishes a pension income and expenditure model through the analysis of urban workers＇ pension payments balance mechanism. The income,expenditures and changes in the balance of pension fund for urban employees are calculated by selecting and adjusting the parameters of the endowment insurance index. The empirical results show that the problem of pension shortfall can＇t be solved by adjusting one of the parameters individualy. The dynamic balance of pension fund income and expenditure achieves only by adjusting multiple parameters comprehensivly and effectively increasing pension fund investment income. The corresponding implementation path is enhancing the supervision of the securities market and effectively strengthening ＂hematopoietic＂function of the pension fund,and increasing the investment income rate of the pension fund to ensure the maintenance and appreciation of pension fund based on the one-time transfer of state-owned capital to pension fund.