供给侧去杠杆风险及发展路径研究

A Study on the Risk and the Developing Route of the Supply-Side Deleverage

供给侧去杠杆是新常态经济的重要组成部分,理解其进展及未来趋势具有重要意义。文章在分析我国各经济部门杠杆现状、形成机制、系统性风险及去杠杆政策效果基础上,建议在经济去杠杆下半程中继续推进债转股和国企混改的实施,降低国企负债率,并重点规范资管业务,完善金融监管体系,降低系统性风险。同时,加大对"三农"和小微企业的政策扶持力度。对于投资者而言,建议挖掘创新经济与消费经济等相关新兴领域、"一带一路"与雄安新区建设相关行业的投资机会。

It is important to understand the progress and the trends of the supply -side deleverage since it is an important part of the new normal economy in China. Based on the analysis of the present situation of leverage in each department , formation mechanism, risk and the deleverage policy, we think： the government should continue to promote the implementation of the debt-to-equity exchange and state-owned enterprises reform; focus on regulating the assets management and improving the financial regulatory system to reduce systematic risk; increase the support to agriculture and small enterprises. For investors, investment opportunities exist in innovative economy, consumer economy,＂ the Belt and Road＂ and Xiong＇an area construction, and other related areas.