“一带一路”背景下全球中间品、资本品贸易空间格局分析——基于2000～2015年BEC分类贸易数据

Trade Spatial Pattern Analysis of the Global Intermediate Goods and the Capital Goods under the Background of "the Belt and Road" ——Based on Trade Data of BEC Classification in 2000~2015

利用复杂网络分析方法 ,对2000~2015年技术含量较高的零部件中间品和成套机器设备等资本品的贸易空间格局进行分析,结果表明:全球中间品、资本品贸易网络形态属于异配网络,多数国家贸易关系多,但贸易强度较大的国家很少,且存在"富人俱乐部"现象;金融危机对贸易网络的影响程度较大,造成了整体贸易网络的萎缩;核心-半边缘-边缘分析显示,层次结构分布较为稳定,内部存在调整,主要表现于北美贸易区核心度呈下降趋势,以美国下降最为显著,而新型经济体呈快速上升,如中国和韩国,印度和越南等"一带一路"沿线国家贸易核心度上升幅度较快。

Through complex network analysis method, this paper studies the trade spatial pattern of intermediate goods with high technical content and capital goods. The results show： First of all, the global intermediate goods and capital goods trade network belongs to the heterogeneous network. Most countries have many trade relations, but the countries with strong trade intensity are rare, and there is the phenomenon of ＂rich club＂ ; Secondly, the impact of the financial crisis on the trade network is great, resulting in the shrinking of trade ties in the overall trade network; Finally, a core-periphery analysis reveals that the hierarchical structure is relatively stable, and the internal adjustment exists. The core position of the North American free trade area is decreasing, especially the United States, while the new economy is rising rapidly. China , South Korea, india , Vietnam and other countries along ＂the Belt and Road＂ rise at the fastest rate.