高炮弱相关射击误差的毁歼概率计算模型

Kill Probability Calculation Model for Weakly Correlative Firing Error of Anti-aircraft Artillery

为精确计算高炮的毁歼概率,建立了弱相关射击误差状态方程,以严格的数学演绎推导了命中概率递推计算模型,即0-1毁伤率下的毁歼概率递推计算模型,并给出了有限取值的误差界。将算例结果和现有方法进行比较,表明包括国家军用标准GJBZ 20499—98在内的误差模型转换法均有明显偏差,此偏差对于多身管高炮尤为明显。

An equation of state of weakly correlative firing error is established to accurately calculate the kill probability of anti-aircraft artillery, and the recursive calculation formula of hit probability is deduced by strict mathematical deduction, that is, the recursive calculation formula of kill probability under 0-1 damage law. The result is accurate and gives the error bound of finite value, which can be used as the evaluation criterion of other models. Comparison with the existing methods indicates that the error model conversion method, including the national standard, has obvious deviation, and its deviation is more obvious for the multi-barrel anti-aircraft artillery.