摘要
目前对冷战后越南海上力量发展动因的分析并不全面。需要结合认知与执行两个层次的因素进行更充分地解释。从认知层面来看,中越之间的历史记忆强化了越南的威胁认知,推动越南诉诸扩张海上力量来制衡中国。从执行中产生的激励效应来看,越南海上力量可以在执法冲突或有限武装冲突中发挥威慑作用,在一定程度上对抗中国的南海维权。与此同时,越南海上力量发展也受到国际环境的激励,美国的支持和中国的克制政策,导致越南海上力量发展在受到地缘政治环境正反馈的同时,避免了经济发展环境出现消极反馈,为越南扩张海上力量提供了必要的条件。
Currently,analyses on motivations of Vietnam's maritime power development after the cold war are not comprehensive,which should be fully explained by the combination of two factors: cognition and implementation. At the cognitive level,the historical memory between China and Vietnam has strengthened the Vietnamese cognition of threat,pushing Vietnam to exercise restraints upon China in resorting to the expansion of sea power. Based on incentives in execution,Vietnamese maritime forces can play a deterrent role in law enforcement conflicts,crises or limited armed conflicts,with the aim to confront China's protection of maritime rights in the South China Sea. At the same time,Vietnam's maritime power development is also inspired by the international landscape. As a result of the support of the United States and China's restraint policy,the development of Vietnam's maritime power gains positive feedback of geopolitical environment,and avoids negative feedback in economic development. Therefore,the aforementioned motivations provide necessary conditions for the expansion of Vietnam's maritime power.
作者
李大陆
LI Dalu(Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《太平洋学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期43-56,共14页
Pacific Journal
基金
2017年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"冷战后东南亚南海争端国‘对冲战略’比较研究"(17YJCGJW005)的阶段性成果
关键词
海上力量
历史记忆
越南
sea power
historical memory
Vietnam