菲律宾杜特尔特政府的南海政策及前景

Duterte Administration's Policy on the South China Sea and Its Prospect

杜特尔特政府上台以来,积极调整菲律宾的南海政策。这是菲律宾内政外交多种因素共同作用的结果,也是基于菲律宾国家利益最大化的务实理性选择。杜特尔特政府的南海政策仍面临诸多制约因素,主要包括国内政治压力、大国平衡压力以及对待南海仲裁结果的实用主义。杜特尔特政府的未来南海政策走向和发展前景,则与菲国内政治发展态势、美日对菲关系发展态势以及中美菲三方关系的互动态势密切相关。中国需要审慎评估相关态势发展动向,以便及时做出预案。

Since coming into power,the Duterte administration has actively adjusted its policy on the South China Sea. It is the combined effect of various factors,both internal and external environment,which rooted in the pragmatic and rational choice to realize the maximization of national interests. The Duterte administration still faces many constraints on implementing and advancing the current policy on the South China Sea,mainly including the domestic political pressure,the diplomatic pressure to seek a balance among major powers,and the pragmatic attitude towards the result of the South China Sea arbitration. With regard to the prospect of Duterte administration＇policy on the South China Sea,it is closely related to the trend of Philippine domestic politics,the trend of US-Philippines relations and Japan-Philippines relations,as well as the trilateral interaction among China,the Philippines and the US. Therefore,China needs to pay close attention to,and carefully assess the trend of relevant situations in order to make a plan in time.