缓发性海洋灾害影响评估研究:基本视角与理论框架

Research into Impact Assessment of Delayed Marine Disaster: Basic Perspective and Theoretical Framework

作为缓发性海洋灾害的一种主要表现形式,海平面上升对沿海发展产生严重影响。在剖析灾害评估与脆弱性评估共性基础上,梳理海平面上升影响机理和沿海发展脆弱性评估现有文献发现,影响机理分析不系统、脆弱性评估方法不精细和评估结构差异明显等较为突出。基于此,提出海平面上升对沿海发展影响评估的理论框架,包括4个方面内容:构建海平面上升对沿海发展的影响机理机制、搭建海平面上升对沿海发展影响专业化云数据库、实施海平面上升影响下沿海发展脆弱性评估体系、划分海岸带脆弱性等级梯度标准。

As a major manifestation of delayed marine disasters,the sea level rise has a serious impact on coastal development.Based on the commonality of disasterimpactassessmentandvulnerability assessment,this paper reviews literatures on "the influential mechanism of sea level rise" and "the study of coastal vulnerability assessment".It is found that the analysis of the influential mechanism is unsystematic,vulnerability assessment method is not fine,and the differences of assessment structure are significant.Then the theoretical framework of evaluating the impacts induced by sea level rise is constructed,including"analyzing the influential mechanism of sea level rise","building specialized cloud database of the impacts","constructing the coastal vulnerability assessment system",and"dividing the gradient standard of coastal vulnerability".