基于耕地—粮食—人口系统的休耕区域耕地压力时空演变及预测——以河北省为例

Cultivated area-food-population system in land fallow area and analysis of spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of cultivated land index——A Case Study of Hebei Province

基于河北省65 a耕地面积、粮食产量和人口数量等统计数据,分析全省耕地—粮食—人口系统随时间变化的特点,结合人均最小耕地面积公式计算耕地压力指数并分析其时空特征,利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测河北省未来11 a耕地压力指数。结果表明:(1)河北省1949—2014年65 a时间内耕地面积由726.58×10~4hm^2下降至653.77×10~4hm^2,人均耕地面积由0.24 hm^2下降至0.09 hm^2,粮食总产量由469.51×10~4t上升至3 360.2×10~4t,人均粮食产量由152.14 kg上升至455.07 kg,总人口数由3 086.06万人上升至7 384万人;(2)耕地压力指数在人均年粮食需求量取值为380、400、420 kg的情景下均呈下降趋势,分别在2005年、2008年、2010年之后持续低于1,65 a中全省11市耕地压力指数均呈现下降趋势,2010年底仅4市耕地压力指数大于1,耕地压力指数的全局Moran’s I指数从弱正相关到弱负相关再到明显的正相关性,其空间聚集性变强;(3)未来11 a全省耕地压力指数保持稳定微弱下降趋势,均小于1,耕地压力较小。针对河北省粮食安全问题提出了建议。

This study analyzed cultivated land,food and population systems with time-varying characteristics based on statistics like cultivated land area,grain yield and population of Hebei Province during the last 65 years as well as cultivated land pressure index using the for mula of the smallest cultivated land area. The paper calculated,analyzed and forecasted the spatial and temporal characteristics of the cultivated land pressure index in Hebei Province by GM（ 1,1） model. The results showed that：（ 1） There are some changes in Hebei Province from 1949 to 2014： The cultivated land decreased from 726.579×10~4 hm^2 to 653.774×10~4 hm^2,the cultivated land per capita decreased from 0.24 hm^2 to 0.09 hm^2,the grain yield increased from 469.51×10~4 t to 3 360.2×10~4 t,grain yield per capita increased from 152.14 kg to 455.07 kg,and the total population increased from 3 086.06×10~4 to 7 384×10~4;（ 2） All the cultivated land pressure indexes declined when the annual grain demand per capita was 380,400,420 kg,and continued below 1,respectively after 2005,2008 and 2010. All the cultivated land pressure indexes of 11 cities in Hebei Province declined during the 65 years and only indexed 4 cities over 1 in 2010. The global Moran＇s I of cultivated land pressure index was from weak negative correlation to weak positive correlation and the spatial agglomeration became stronger;（ 3） The cultivated land pressure index of Hebei Province continued to decline withthe index below 1 over the next 11 year,and suggestions aiming at the less cultivated land pressure and food security issues in Hebei Province were put forward.