产业结构调整背景下的区域用电量预测模型库构建

Regional Electricity Consumption Forecast Model under the Background of Industrial Structure Adjustment

基于产业结构调整宏观环境,构建了区域用电量预测模型初选库,其主要包括基于时间序列的区域用电量预测模型和基于影响因素的区域用电量预测模型。并基于预测效果反馈,建立预测效果评级指标体系,构建预测效果评价模型。在评价结果的基础上,筛选出最优模型作为区域用电量预测模型终选库,以便正确预估地区电网发展趋势,提高企业竞争力。

Based on the macro environment of industrial structure adjustment,the primary selection Library of regional electricity consumption forecasting model is constructed,which mainly includes the prediction model of regional electricity consumption based on time series and the prediction model of regional electricity consumption based on the influence factors.And then,based on prediction effect feedback,set up prediction effect rating index system and build prediction effect evaluation model.Finally,on the basis of the evaluation results,the optimal model is selected as the final selection of the regional electricity consumption forecasting model in order to correctly estimate the development trend of the regional power grid and improve the competitiveness of the enterprises.