基于生态系统服务的叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态经济协调发展分析

Analysis of Eco-Economic Harmonious Development in Yarkant River Plain Oasis based on Ecosystem Service Value

为评价叶尔羌河平原绿洲近25 a生态环境状况及其与经济发展间的协调水平,基于1991年、2005年、2016年遥感影像解译出的土地利用数据,参照中国陆地生态系统服务价值当量表并结合研究区生物量状况、支付意愿修订VC(单位面积生态系统服务价值),运用当量因子法核算ESV(生态系统服务价值).通过敏感度分析检测VC在该区域的适宜性,借助EEH(生态经济协调度指数)定量评价生态与经济发展间的协调程度,为重构研究区生态安全格局奠定基础.结果表明:(1)1991—2016年除耕地、建设用地面积增加外,其他地类面积均减小,林地面积减少最大为47.12%.(2)研究期间ESV减少了22.08×108元,年均减小率0.20%,这主要是由林地、水体、未利用土地、草地面积减小所致.(3)研究区服务性功能远大于生产性功能,其中调节服务的价值贡献率最大为78.05%,文化服务的价值贡献率最小为3.22%.(4)敏感度分析显示,ESV对引入的VC缺乏弹性,表明修订的价值系数适合该区域.(5)生态经济协调发展分析表明,1991—2016年研究区生态与经济发展处于低度冲突,空间上除叶城、巴楚县为低度协调外,其余县为低度冲突,莎车县冲突程度更明显.研究显示,近25 a区域生态环境总体呈恶化趋势,生态与经济发展亦由低度协调转变为低度冲突,今后需加大生态保护力度,促使冲突区向协调区转变.

In order to evaluate the ecological environment of the Yarkant River plain oasis in the past 25 years and the level of coordination between it and the economic development,land use data were interpreted from remote sensing images on 1991,2005 and 2016. Referring to the China terrestrial ecosystem service value scale and combining with the biomass status and the willingness to pay of the study area,the ecosystem service value per unit area was revised. Then the ecosystem service value was calculated by the equivalent factor method.The suitability of VC in this region was tested by sensitivity analysis,and the degree of coordination between ecological and economic development was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the eco-economic harmonious index（EEH）,so as to lay a foundation for the reconstruction of ecological security pattern in the study area.The results showed that：（1） Except the cultivated land and the construction land,the area of other land types decreased,and the forest land area decreased by 47. 12% in 1991-2016.（2） During the study period,the ecosystem services value decreased by 22. 08×108 RMB,with an average annual decrease rate of 0. 20%,which was mainly caused by the decrease of forest land,water,unused land and meadow area.（3） The service function of the study area was far greater than the productive function,in which the value contribution rate of the regulation service was 78. 05%,and the value contribution rate of the cultural service was 3. 22%.（4） Sensitivity analysis showed that ecosystem services value was not elastic to the value coefficient introduced,which indicated that revised value coefficient was suitable for the region.（5） The analysis of eco-economic harmoniousdevelopment showed that the study area in the low conflict space during 1991-2016,in addition to Yecheng,Bachu county,was low harmony,and the rest of the county was low conflict and conflict degree of Shache County was more obvious. The study shows that the regional ecological environment has deteriorated in the past 25 years,and the ecological and economic development has changed from low coordination to low conflict. In the future,ecological protection should be strengthened to promote the transition from conflict zone to coordination zone.