基于土地利用变化的鄱阳湖流域生态风险评价

Assessment of Ecological Risk in Poyang Lake Basin Based on Changes in Land Use

以鄱阳湖流域为研究对象，利用2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年4期遥感影像，分析了2000--2015年鄱阳湖流域的土地利用演变特征；根据景观生态学原理，构建土地利用生态风险评价模型，并借助地统计学、空间自相关、GIS技术等分析方法，对鄱阳湖流域土地利用变化情景下的生态风险进行评价。结果表明：鄱阳湖流域生态风险显现出逐步向高风险发展的趋势。高风险区主要集中在北部南昌市、鄱阳湖附近，南部生态风险较低，形成“北高南低”的局面。空间自相关分析结果显示高值-高值（H—H）聚集区集中分布于高风险区附近，低值-低值（L—L）聚集区主要分布于研究区边界。

Taking Poyang Lake basin as the research object, firstly using 4 remote sensing images in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015, analyzed the 2000--2015 of the Poyang Lake river basin characteristics of land use change ;then according to the principle of landscape ecology,construct land use ecological risk assessment model, And with the help of geostatisties, spatial autoeorrelation analysis method and GIS Technology, to evaluate the ecological risk of land use change in Poyang Lake basin. The results show that the ecological risk of Poyang Lake River Basin shows a trend of gradually developing to high risk.High risk areas are mainly concen- trated in the northern region, Nanehang City,near Poyang Lake, and the lower ecological risk in the south, resulting in the situation of ＂ North High and South low＂. Spatial autoerrelation analysis showed that the high value high value （H-H） aggregation area was concentrated around the high risk area, and the low value low value （L-L） aggregation area was mainly located in the boundary of the study area.Through regression analysis, we can know that river water surface distance, topography and urban distance all affect ecological risk.