县域土地利用变化对碳储量影响分析——以四川省梓潼县为例

Analysis of Influence of Land Use Change on Carbon Stock in County Area——Take Zitong County of Sichuan Province as Example

陆地生态系统中碳储量的变化在全球气候变化中起着至关重要的作用,土地利用方式的改变是引起碳储量变化的主要因素。结合Landsat TM/ETM+遥感图像和In VEST模型计算了梓潼县1996-2016年土地利用变化对生态系统碳储量的影响,同时借助Dyna-CLUE模型模拟梓潼县2020年土地利用和碳储量的分布情况。结果表明:梓潼县1996-2016年碳储量呈整体减少状态,从1996年的699.76万吨减少到2016年的584.48万吨。1996-2016年建设用地面积持续扩张,导致碳储减少量不断增加,而耕地、灌木草地和有林地面积的变化趋势在2002年均出现较大转折,表明县域土地利用变化和碳储量受国家政策和经济发展双重影响。据模拟,2020年梓潼县碳储总量为553.23万吨,建设用地和有林地面积增加,灌木草地和耕地减少。

The change of carbon stock in terrestrial ecosystem plays an important role in the global climate change,and the change of land utilization type is the main factor that causes the change of carbon stock.Based on the Landsat TM/ETM ＋ remote sensing image and the In VEST model,the impact of land use change of Zitong county on carbon stock of ecosystemfrom 1996 to 2016 was calculated. At the same time with the aid of Dyna-CLUE model,the land use and the distribution of carbon stock of Zitong county in2020 was simulated. The results show that the carbon stock of Zitong county decreased from 699. 76 thousand tons in 1996 to 584. 48 thousand tons in 2016. The area of land used for building continued to expand from 1996 to 2016,resulting in increasing carbon decrease. There was a major turning point in the change trend of cultivated land,shrub grassland and forestland in 2002,showing that the change of land use and carbon stock in county area are influenced by national policies and economic development. According to the simulation results,the total amount of carbon storage in Zitong county in 2020 is 553. 23 thousand tons. The area of construction land and forestland will increase,while the shrub grassland and the cultivated land will decrease.