托市政策下我国粮食供给反应实证分析——基于稻谷、小麦和玉米主产省的面板数据模型

Empirical Analysis on Supply Response of Grain in China under Market Support Policy:Based on the Panel Data Model of Major Producing Provinces of Paddy,Wheat and Corn

基于2003—2014年稻谷、小麦和玉米主产省的面板数据,运用扩展的Nerlove供给反应模型对托市政策下我国农户粮食供给行为进行实证研究。研究发现,稻谷、小麦播种面积对短期价格变动的反应敏感性不强,对长期价格变动反应的敏感程度有较大提升,但均缺乏弹性。玉米播种面积对短期价格变动的反应不敏感,但在长期对价格变动富有弹性。另外,滞后一期播种面积对当期粮食播种面积的变动具有显著的正向影响,且影响程度最大。最低收购价对稻谷和小麦播种面积变动具有显著的正向影响。农业生产资料价格对稻谷、小麦和玉米播种面积变动均具有显著的负向影响。竞争作物价格会对稻谷和小麦的播种面积产生负向影响,对玉米播种面积的影响不显著。

Based on the panel data of major grain production provinces from 2003 to 2014,the paper makes an empirical study on grain production behavior of Chinese farmers by using the extended Nerlove supply response model.The study finds that when making decisions about the planting areas of paddy,wheat and corn,farmers are not sensitive enough to short-term price changes while they are more sensitive to long-term price changes.The sowing area of the previous period has a significant positive effect on the current sowing area,which,of all the factors,has the greatest impact.The lowest purchase price has a significant positive effect on the sowing area of paddy and wheat.The price of agricultural production input has a significant negative effect on the current sowing area of grain.Price of alternative crop has a significant negative impact on the sowing area of paddy and wheat and has less impact on the sowing area of corn.