铂族金属供需及市场价格展望

Supply-Demand Analysis and Market Outlook for Platinum Group Metals

2016~2018年,在供需缺口和美元疲弱的支撑下,铂族金属价格震荡走高,但铂的表现要弱于钯和铑。基于汽车催化和其他工业、首饰及投资等的需求,以及矿产和再生资源的供应,对铂族金属价格变化影响因素进行了分析。结合全球货币政策、美元指数走势及供需平衡的预测,对2020年铂族金属市场价格进行展望。预计全球铂供需将更加平衡或略有供给过剩,钯将进入供应短缺的第10个年头。国际现货铂价格将继续呈区间震荡走势,价格有望触及1200美元/盎司一线,之后将回调;钯和铑价格将延续强劲走势,最高将触及1350美元/盎司和2600美元/盎司。

The price of platinum-group metals （PGMs） surged higher during 2016~2018 due to poor supply and weak US dollar, and palladium and rhodium outperformed their peer, platinum. Based on the trends of global monetary policy and considering US dollar along with the supply-demand balance, PGMs market outlook in the year 2020 is presented herein. Global platinum supply and demand will be more balanced, even slightly oversupplied whereas palladium will enjoy a good 10th year of supply shortage. The price for spot platinum will continue to flutuate in a range, and is expected to reach $1,200/oz and then will retreat. Palladium and rhodium price remains high and will hit $1,350/oz and $2,600/oz, respectively.