基于GRA-TOPSIS的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担

Risk Sharing of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project Based on GRA-TOPSIS

妥善处理好各参与方之间的风险分担问题,以保障城市轨道交通PPP项目成功实施。在国内外研究现状基础上,首先,采用Delphi法对城轨PPP项目的关键风险按不同阶段进行有效识别,考虑风险分担4项原则及项目各个阶段,绘制全生命周期的PPP项目风险分担流程图,并建立基于参与方满意度的风险分担指标体系;其次,将灰色关联分析法和双基准法相结合,充分利用两者优势构建城轨PPP项目风险分担模型,采用层次分析与熵值法确定主客观权重,并借助Matlab软件,选出最适合的参与方作为风险分担的承担者;最后,采用青岛地铁3号线实际案例验证模型的合理性与有效性,并对参与方应承担的风险进行合理划分。通过研究为我国城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担的理论与实践提供参考。

The risk sharing among participants will be properly handled to ensure the successful implementation of urban rail transit PPP projects. Based on the current research at home and abroad,firstly,using the Delphi method,the key risks of urban rail transit PPP project in different stages are effectively identified, four principles of risk sharing project and various stages are taken into consideration,then the flow chart of whole life cycle of the PPP project risk sharing is drawn,and the index system of risk allocation based on participants＇ satisfaction is established; Secondly,combining the grey correlation analysis method and double benchmark method and making full use of the advantages,PPP project risk sharing model is built,then the subjective and objective weights are determined through the analytic hierarchy process and entropy value method,and with the aid of Matlab for computing tools,most appropriate parties as risk-sharing contract are chosen; Finally,the rationality and validity of the practical case verification model of Qingdao metro line 3 are used,and the risk of participating party should be properly divided. This paper provides a reference for the theory and practice of the risk sharing of urban rail transit PPP projects in China.