“两免一补”政策对农村居民消费的溢出效应研究

Study on the Spillover Effect from the “Two Exempt and One Subsidy” Policy on Rural Residents' Consumption

基于1999-2016年全国31个省的面板数据,利用固定效应模型探析了"两免一补"政策对我国农村居民消费的影响,结果表明:该政策对农村居民的消费水平具有正向的促进作用,控制省份和年份固定效应后,这种促进作用表现得更加显著;使用政府财政性教育经费替换政策虚拟变量,结果进一步证实了该政策对于提升农村居民消费水平的溢出效应;此外还发现,近年来收入增长对农村居民消费的拉动作用有所下降,而抚养比特别是少儿抚养比对消费的抑制作用明显增强。因此,在提振农村居民消费的措施上,"减负"和"增收"同样值得重视,这也更加凸显了惠农教育政策实施的必要性。

Based on a panel data consisting of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2016,this paper investigates the influence from the＂Two Exempt and One Subsidy＂policy on rural residents＇ consumption in China through the fixed effect model. Empirical results show that： this policy has played a positive role on the growth of rural residents＇ consumption,and the positive effect became more significant after controlling year and province fixed effects. Furthermore,this paper substitutes the policy dummy variable by the government budgetary expenditure on education,and the results also demonstrate the positive spillover effect from the policy combination on rural residents＇ consumption. In addition,we can find that the promotion effect of income on rural residents＇ consumption has been decreasing,while the inhibiting effect of dependency ratio especially children dependency ratio on rural residents＇ consumption has been increasing in recent years. Therefore,both the ＂Burden Reduction＂and＂Income Increase＂should be considered on boosting rural residents＇ consumption,which further suggesting the necessity of the implementation of benefiting-farmers education policy.