联盟背叛者的动机、行为及其后果探析

Research on the Betrayer's Motivation,Behavior and Consequences of Alliance

国家为了安全和利益而结盟,也是为了安全和利益而选择背叛联盟。在联盟背叛者的行为选择中,利益关系是背叛者的首要考虑因素,而联盟承诺的可靠性以及对联盟的依赖性则直接影响着联盟背叛者对自身利益和联盟环境的判断和感知。这三种变量的相互关系变化,最终决定背叛者是否选择背叛联盟。联盟对背叛行为不会无动于衷,背叛者可能会承受背叛联盟所带来的后果:惩罚与制裁、奖励与承诺或是被观望。联盟背叛者为了让盟友或敌人认识到背叛行为是一种有利可图的合理选择,力求以最小的代价实现其背叛目的。

As a state seeks alliance for security and interest,so does it seek betrayal. In the behavior selection of the betrayer, interest is his primary consideration,while the reliability of alliance ＇s commitment and its dependence on the alliance have a direct influence on the judgment and perception of the betrayer＇s own interests and the environment of the Alliance. The change of relationship among the three variables determines whether the betrayer chooses to betray the Alliance or not. The alliance will not be indifferent to betrayal,so the betrayer may undertake the consequences of betraying the alliance： punishment and sanctions,rewards and commitments,or being observed. To make allies or enemies aware of the profitability of a rational choice,the betrayer strives to achieve his goal at a minimum cost.